Bill continues to strengthen, but still expected to miss
Editor’s note: Expect a daily briefing around noon/early afternoon as Hurricane Bill continues to spin out in the Atlantic. This blog will primarily focus on Bill’s potential effects on Charleston, SC weather. For the most up-to-date source of information about Bill and potential impacts elsewhere, please visit The National Hurricane Center website. If Bill makes a move that more directly threatens Charleston, coverage will increase.
Visible satellite picture of Hurricane Bill, taken about 1PM EDT. Source: NOAA
Hurricane Bill, a Category 2 storm with 105 MPH winds, is continuing to spin out in the Atlantic. It’s formed a pretty well-defined eye this afternoon after an early-morning eyewall replacement cycle; at this point, it’s safe to say it’s clear for more strengthening. The official NHC forecast does place Bill as a major Category 3 storm within the next 24 hours.
Fortunately for the U.S. East Coast, Bill is expected to begin to recurve out to sea within the next few days. All the forecasting models are in good agreement about Bill’s recurvature out to sea. Where it recurves is another matter; there are some solutions that seem to push Bill fairly close to Maine later on in the week as it becomes extratropical. Interests on Bermuda are also watching Bill’s recurvature closely; the models range from a sideswipe of the island to a more direct hit. The forecast track seems to favor a bit of a glancing blow to Bermuda. However, the cone of uncertainty around the track is incredibly large, with a lot of room for error, so this is still something to watch, especially before it crosses the 32nd parallel.
An East Coast landfall is quite unlikely; however, that doesn’t mean Bill’s effects won’t be felt here. We should start to see some fairly good surf in the next day or so as Bill begins to recurve and parallel the coast. With that surf, though, comes an elevated rip current risk, so be careful if you look to catch the waves. Keep an eye to Surf Lowcountry if you’re looking to hang ten.
Keep watching Bill — tropical systems are still unpredictable, after all. If things change, we’ll jump in here or on Twitter.