Tagged: Forecast RSS

  • Jared Smith 10:03 am on December 15, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: , Forecast, thunderstorms   

    Flooding bullet dodged; rain to ramp back up this afternoon 

    We got a reprieve this morning from what could have been quite a nasty rain event — the heaviest rain pushed offshore well before 3am and has broken a bit, allowing NWS to lift the Flash Flood Watch. The rain respite is welcomed this morning, with even some sun breaking through the clouds, but the next wave of energy will move in from the southwest this afternoon, bringing back more showers and some isolated thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to remain in southern Georgia, so no widespread flood event is expected. Temperatures will reach the low 70s before the front pushes through — but don’t let the jackets stray too far. We’re back into the mid 50s for highs tomorrow, with abundant sunshine.

     
  • Jared Smith 10:40 pm on December 14, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: , , Forecast,   

    Rain, potential flooding Tuesday morning 

    Our wetter-than-average December will continue through Tuesday — another several inches of rain are expected during the day Tuesday as another system pushes through the area. There are some concerns on the timing of the system — we could yet again see heavy rain coinciding with a high tide in downtown Charleston tomorrow morning. (High tide occurs just after 7am.) Thus, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Charleston County — primarily targeted at those areas of downtown that flood — through the morning hours. If your commute takes you through downtown, be careful of areas of standing water and don’t attempt to drive through them.

    We also have a shot at thunderstorms during the day; fortunately, conditions are not expected to be favorable for severe weather. Some severe weather, including tornadoes, has been observed in Georgia, but that activity is not expected to be a factor into the Charleston area. If conditions change, you’ll see an update on @chswx with further explanation here. Try to stay dry tomorrow!

     
    • Jared Smith 12:06 am on December 15, 2009 Permalink

      Rain is taking hold throughout the Charleston metro — it will be with us for a day or so. Expect to hear some embedded rumbles of thunder, as well. Rainfall rates are heaviest further south into Beaufort and Jasper counties; locally heavy rainfall is possible through tonight and tomorrow morning. Given that an inch or two of rain overnight is not out of the question, flooding problems may start downtown well before high tide.

    • Jared Smith 12:35 am on December 15, 2009 Permalink

      Fully expecting to see at least a flood advisory go up for low-lying and poor drainage areas soon — rainfall has been steady over the past hour with decent RADAR-estimated rates of up to 8 tenths of an inch per hour in some spots, including West Ashley. The more impressive rainfall rates are south of here and offshore; seeing estimations near 2″ per hour on a line between Beaufort and Hilton Head Island.

  • Jared Smith 10:40 am on December 2, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: , , Forecast,   

    As messy as advertised, with the brunt yet to come 

    The flooding situation has been as messy as advertised this morning. NWS just reported that the high tide at Charleston Harbor this morning was 7.75 feet — well beyond the point where coastal flooding begins even without rain (typically 7 feet).

    Traffic into downtown Charleston is nearly impossible. The Crosstown is closed and it’s not likely to reopen for a little while. Stalled cars litter the streets-turned-rivers downtown. Josh Marthers at WCBD captures the flooding situation well. I also highly recommend watching traffic tweets and pictures (and there are some good ones) on Collecta.

    And as bad as this morning was, we haven’t seen the worst of it. This morning’s Day 1 Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center continues the “slight risk” for severe weather in Charleston, and this could be upgraded to a “moderate risk” later today, especially if any sunshine peeks through and adds more fuel to the fire. The storm system which is expected to wreak havoc on us later this evening has already dropped several tornadoes in the Florida panhandle, and there is a good possibility we may see at least one or two tornadic cells later today in the Lowcountry. Straight-line damaging winds continue to be the primary threat from this system, though.

    There’s a good shot that we’ll have a tornado watch in effect by 3PM today. Keep an eye to Twitter as the day progresses with updates from NWS and SPC. We’ll announce watches and warnings there as they happen.

     
    • Jared Smith 1:36 pm on December 2, 2009 Permalink

      Not much has changed with the new Day 1 Outlook. Charleston is still listed as having an elevated risk of tornadoes and damaging winds. In the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Charleston called this afternoon’s severe weather threat a “potentially dangerous situation” — something NWS does not say lightly. Here’s hoping for the best, but it does look like the ingredients are going to come together for a very rough late afternoon and evening. Some clearing was observed in Georgia — let’s just hope that doesn’t happen here.

    • Jared Smith 3:15 pm on December 2, 2009 Permalink

      Tornado Watch now in effect for a great deal of SC, including Charleston and surrounding areas, until 9 PM. More information forthcoming.

  • Jared Smith 2:17 am on December 2, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: , day 1, Forecast,   

    Wednesday: Slight risk of severe weather, high probability of damaging winds 

    The Storm Prediction Center has just issued its Day 1 Convective Outlook, placing the Charleston area in a slight risk for severe weather. Currently, forecasters are pegging the severe event to take place in the late afternoon and into the evening hours. Primary threats are widespread damaging winds as well as the possibility of tornadoes, especially along the coastal regions.

    Currently, this is the thinking (or something like it) on Wednesday’s event:

    • 3AM – midday: Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms associated with a warm front will soak the Lowcountry. The timing of the rain will line up with an already abnormally high tide at 7am. Enhanced with a brisk onshore flow, coastal areas including downtown Charleston could see potentially significant flooding. A Coastal Flood Warning goes into effect at 4am through 11am.
    • Midday – ~2-3 PM: Break in the action as the warm front lifts north, but before the cold front’s squall line reaches the coast. There’s a possibility that the sun may come out during this time; any sunshine could significantly destabilize the atmosphere further and thus enhance the intensity of severe weather.
    • 3 PM – Evening: Cold front makes its move on the Lowcountry. Squally thunderstorms with strong, damaging wind likely. Supercells also are a possibility; those storms can contain downbursts and tornadoes. Heavy rain also is expected, though the flood threat is not expected to be as pronounced in the evening. Activity will likely continue after sunset; be especially aware of rapidly changing conditions after dark because it will be much harder to see what’s happening.
    • Thursday: Conditions gradually abate themselves as the front moves through; rain tapers off through Thursday.

    The takeaway: The morning and afternoon commutes will likely be quite nasty. Allow extra time during your commute, and if you encounter a flooded area downtown in the morning, turn around! It takes relatively little water to stall out a vehicle. Streets such as Rutledge and Ashley Avenues, Jonathan Lucas, Bee Street, the Crosstown, East Bay Street, Market Street, and others could prove impassable. Have alternate routes ready to go. Other coastal communities, including Folly Beach and Isle of Palms, may also see significant flooding problems in the morning.

    Keep an eye here or to @chswx for updates throughout the day.

     
  • Jared Smith 4:24 pm on November 9, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: Forecast, gulf coast, , tropical storm ida   

    Eyes on Ida, impacts on Charleston 

    Tropical Storm Ida is on its way to an early morning landfall on the Gulf Coast. As of the 1PM advisory, Ida’s packing 70 MPH winds — a generous estimate, as the storm is being sheared off from the southwest and is in cooler waters. Ida’s slowly beginning to lose its tropical characteristics, too — a condition that will accelerate as it is absorbed into a frontal system tomorrow. While Ida itself will wind down, the interaction of the storm’s low pressure center and a high pressure system to the north (which brought us beautiful weather for the weekend) is creating a tight pressure gradient, which will bring gusty winds to much of the Southeast, including Charleston. The winds will be primarily out of the east and southeast, so there is concern for elevated tides and choppy waters. Small craft advisories are in force and will likely prevail through the next several days.

    The forecast is still a bit tricky on this, but for now, expect some showers to start after midnight, with a buildup of rain during the day Tuesday. If the forecast holds, the rain will gradually begin to taper off on Wednesday as the system moves offshore. Gusty winds of 15-25 MPH are possible at times, so in heavier pockets of rain visibility may become an issue. Generally, though, expect this to be a bit of a windy and rainy storm, but nothing too terribly out of the ordinary otherwise — certainly is nothing to board up over. :)

    I’ll post some additional information as it comes through the weather wire during the day in the comments as we begin to get a better handle on what’s going to happen over the next two days. Stay tuned.

     
    • Jared Smith 5:00 pm on November 9, 2009 Permalink

      Small Craft Advisories are up for the Charleston County coast until 5 PM Friday. Also, the latest forecast track puts Ida inland tonight, and then turning east during the day Tuesday.

    • Jared Smith 5:28 pm on November 9, 2009 Permalink

      From the NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook just released a few minutes ago — gale watches/warnings possible for the harbor:

      MARINE…STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
      WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
      IDA MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
      SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP
      ACROSS ALL OR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING
      CHARLESTON HARBOR…AND GALE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY
      EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE
      LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE
      INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

    • Jared Smith 5:32 pm on November 9, 2009 Permalink

      Also from the HWO: NWS is also monitoring for high surf and coastal flooding. Note the possibility for wind advisories for the coastal areas.

      COASTAL HAZARDS…HIGH SURF…BEACH EROSION AND SHALLOW COASTAL
      FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
      AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…AS WINDS AND
      SEAS INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
      IDA PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
      BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY
      EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

      WINDS…BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
      AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
      IDA PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
      IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY
      EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
      AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.

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