The story from Bill for Charleston, of course, is high surf and rip currents. It’s a thrilling but dangerous proposition for surfers, as the strong rip currents can sweep people out to sea. High Surf Advisories continue through 6PM Sunday.

Meanwhile, NHC is monitoring a wave off the coast of Africa for development; however, the latest tropical weather outlook shows the wave heading into an increasingly unfavorable atmosphere; unless it gets very organized within the next day or so, chances are pretty low that it will get it together enough to be a depression.

The prognosis for us in Charleston is still very positive, as the computer models are in great agreement that Bill will start a turn to the northwest at some point tomorrow, and then turn gradually northward as it interacts with a trough of low pressure pushing its way off the Eastern Seaboard. While we’ll very likely be missed, the track could get a bit hairy for New England and Nova Scotia closer to this weekend. Folks up that way will want to keep an eye on Bill.

Thankfully, aside from Bill, the tropical Atlantic is quiet, with nothing else in the train right now. I’ll continue to monitor and update as needed.

Visible satellite picture of Hurricane Bill, taken about 1PM EDT. Source: NOAA

Hurricane Bill, a Category 2 storm with 105 MPH winds, is continuing to spin out in the Atlantic. It’s formed a pretty well-defined eye this afternoon after an early-morning eyewall replacement cycle; at this point, it’s safe to say it’s clear for more strengthening. The official NHC forecast does place Bill as a major Category 3 storm within the next 24 hours.

Fortunately for the U.S. East Coast, Bill is expected to begin to recurve out to sea within the next few days. All the forecasting models are in good agreement about Bill’s recurvature out to sea. Where it recurves is another matter; there are some solutions that seem to push Bill fairly close to Maine later on in the week as it becomes extratropical. Interests on Bermuda are also watching Bill’s recurvature closely; the models range from a sideswipe of the island to a more direct hit. The forecast track seems to favor a bit of a glancing blow to Bermuda. However, the cone of uncertainty around the track is incredibly large, with a lot of room for error, so this is still something to watch, especially before it crosses the 32nd parallel.

An East Coast landfall is quite unlikely; however, that doesn’t mean Bill’s effects won’t be felt here. We should start to see some fairly good surf in the next day or so as Bill begins to recurve and parallel the coast. With that surf, though, comes an elevated rip current risk, so be careful if you look to catch the waves. Keep an eye to Surf Lowcountry if you’re looking to hang ten.

Keep watching Bill — tropical systems are still unpredictable, after all. If things change, we’ll jump in here or on Twitter.

That’s changing, though. Tropical Storm Ana formed this morning, with Tropical Depression Three right behind it (expect it to become Bill soon). Where are they headed? While it’s too soon to say for sure, these two are storms we’ll want to keep an eye on in Charleston.

Tropical Storm Ana

Ana’s had a rough start to life; it started as Tropical Depression Two a couple days ago, fizzled out, and then suddenly roared back to life overnight Friday and gained Tropical Storm status. In the last few hours, though, strong upper-level winds have started tearing the storm apart again, and Ana’s survival is once again questionable. However, if it does hang tough, this will be something to watch as we get into Wednesday and Thursday. (South Florida should definitely keep a close eye on this one.)

Tropical Storm Bill

Bill was christened at the 5PM advisory, and has a much better chance of long-term survival and attaining hurricane status than Ana. In a way, Ana’s blazing a trail for Bill; it’s interacting with a lot of dry air and leaving behind a moist wake, which Bill can use to better sustain itself. The forecast has it becoming a category 2 hurricane by Thursday, just north of Puerto Rico. While early model runs do indicate that Bill will curve away, the track does bear a very close eye given the expected intensity of the storm and the fact that it could cut fairly close. Of the two storms, Bill concerns me more.

I’ll update here as more is learned about these two systems and their impact on Charleston’s weather later into the upcoming week.