Sunday severe threat
The storm system that’s put the Midwest, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky under the severe weather gun over the past two days is pushing toward the coast today. While the atmospheric ingredients are certainly nowhere near what is needed for the widespread tornadic activity to our west, the potential remains for damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps isolated tornadoes over the Lowcountry.
Storms with occasionally heavy rain are trekking across the area this morning. Those will move aside by midday, allowing for a bit of clearing and heating to occur, which could fuel additional thunderstorm activity through this evening. High tide at Charleston Harbor is at 6:48 PM, so any heavy thunderstorms along the coast this evening might also cause some flooding trouble downtown.
Here’s what the Storm Prediction Center has to say:
…CAROLINAS…
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO PARTS OF SC/NC TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST RAPID MID LEVEL
DRYING WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TODAY…BRINGING STRONG HEATING
AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS. SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN SC/NC…WITH STORMS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST AFTER DARK. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS…THERE WOULD BE A RISK
OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
And from NWS Charleston:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING…THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL OF 1 INCH OR GREATER AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS…THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
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Jared Smith 7:15 pm on April 25, 2010 Permalink
Looks like the chance of widespread severe weather is diminishing. We’re still not completely out of the woods yet but things are looking better. From the latest AFD:
A mesoscale discussion from around 6:30 indicated a watch coming soon along the SC coast; however, that’s yet to materialize. The threat may become so isolated that a watch issuance becomes unnecessary. (Fingers crossed there!)