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  • Jared Smith 10:03 am on December 15, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: , , thunderstorms   

    Flooding bullet dodged; rain to ramp back up this afternoon 

    We got a reprieve this morning from what could have been quite a nasty rain event — the heaviest rain pushed offshore well before 3am and has broken a bit, allowing NWS to lift the Flash Flood Watch. The rain respite is welcomed this morning, with even some sun breaking through the clouds, but the next wave of energy will move in from the southwest this afternoon, bringing back more showers and some isolated thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to remain in southern Georgia, so no widespread flood event is expected. Temperatures will reach the low 70s before the front pushes through — but don’t let the jackets stray too far. We’re back into the mid 50s for highs tomorrow, with abundant sunshine.

     
  • Jared Smith 10:40 pm on December 14, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: , , ,   

    Rain, potential flooding Tuesday morning 

    Our wetter-than-average December will continue through Tuesday — another several inches of rain are expected during the day Tuesday as another system pushes through the area. There are some concerns on the timing of the system — we could yet again see heavy rain coinciding with a high tide in downtown Charleston tomorrow morning. (High tide occurs just after 7am.) Thus, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Charleston County — primarily targeted at those areas of downtown that flood — through the morning hours. If your commute takes you through downtown, be careful of areas of standing water and don’t attempt to drive through them.

    We also have a shot at thunderstorms during the day; fortunately, conditions are not expected to be favorable for severe weather. Some severe weather, including tornadoes, has been observed in Georgia, but that activity is not expected to be a factor into the Charleston area. If conditions change, you’ll see an update on @chswx with further explanation here. Try to stay dry tomorrow!

     
    • Jared Smith 12:06 am on December 15, 2009 Permalink

      Rain is taking hold throughout the Charleston metro — it will be with us for a day or so. Expect to hear some embedded rumbles of thunder, as well. Rainfall rates are heaviest further south into Beaufort and Jasper counties; locally heavy rainfall is possible through tonight and tomorrow morning. Given that an inch or two of rain overnight is not out of the question, flooding problems may start downtown well before high tide.

    • Jared Smith 12:35 am on December 15, 2009 Permalink

      Fully expecting to see at least a flood advisory go up for low-lying and poor drainage areas soon — rainfall has been steady over the past hour with decent RADAR-estimated rates of up to 8 tenths of an inch per hour in some spots, including West Ashley. The more impressive rainfall rates are south of here and offshore; seeing estimations near 2″ per hour on a line between Beaufort and Hilton Head Island.

  • Jared Smith 10:24 am on December 9, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: , ,   

    Tornado Watch 803 CANCELLED as line of storms weakens 

    Tornado Watch 803 has been canceled as the energy needed to kick off additional severe weather has waned considerably; this is evident in the precipitation signature of the squall line pushing eastward. We may see rain with gusty winds — and you can never rule out a clap of thunder — but things have calmed considerably. The rain will be out of here by midday; enjoy one last day in the 70s before the temperatures plunge on Thursday.

     
  • Jared Smith 9:02 am on December 9, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: ,   

    Tornado Watch 803 until 10am; line of storms incoming 

    Look out for a rough morning ahead: The Storm Prediction Center issued Tornado Watch 803 around 6am out ahead of a very strong squall line that’s rifling through the Southeast. This line has a history of damaging winds and tornadoes cannot be ruled out. (Watch Wunderground radar in motion.) Additionally, the sun is starting to peek, which may add some instability before the line arrives.

    As of this writing, it appears the line will start to be felt in the northwestern portions of Berkeley and Dorchester counties around 8:30am; it will spread quickly through the area shortly thereafter. The line is moving at speeds up to 55 MPH, so this will be a short-term event. Things should be clearing after 10am, when the Tornado Watch expires.

    Watch @chswx on Twitter for the latest statements and any warnings that are issued.

     
    • Jared Smith 9:47 am on December 9, 2009 Permalink

      Been watching RADAR. Heavy rain being reported in some areas but not seeing any thunderstorm reports within the line, which has not looked as impressive in the last hour. Wind fields and storm motions are still impressive, though, and anything that flares up has a shot at producing damaging winds (though the only warnings right now are in NE SC).

    • Jared Smith 10:04 am on December 9, 2009 Permalink

      A weakening trend within the line is continuing. Precipitation is falling off noticeably, particularly over the portions of the Midlands and the inland Lowcountry that are still in the line. Still some stronger storms in Georgia that might hold up, but the trend is positive in terms of our severe weather threat. That being said, the watch continues — there’s still decent juice in the atmosphere — 64 degree dewpoints, for starters — that could still flare a storm.

    • Jared Smith 10:20 am on December 9, 2009 Permalink

      This watch is now canceled. The weakening trend is enough for NWS to declare the severe weather threat moot. Still will see gusty winds but it looks like the major severe threat has ended.

  • Jared Smith 11:11 pm on December 2, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: Recap, ,   

    Tornado watch canceled; threat ends 

    The Tornado Watch which has been with us for most of the afternoon — and stuck around a little longer than anticipated — has finally been dropped for the area.

    We were very fortunate that the severe weather outbreak that had been predicted for this afternoon did not play out. One major factor was the lack of sunshine — because the clouds hung around, this kept a lid on the most explosive convection. Another factor was timing; storms did not begin to reintensify until they were largely offshore. We did notice the squall line falter and then pick up just before it pushed offshore, prompting a fairly long period where the Charleston area was warned for severe weather. After pushing offshore, very distinct rotations in the cells developed and are now moving ashore in the Grand Strand and into southeast North Carolina.

    Flooding still persists throughout the region. Downtown streets, which have been turned to rivers twice in 12 hours, will need some time to clear out — the lowering tides will help. There’s also reports of standing water in Goose Creek, Moncks Corner, and North Charleston. If you encounter standing water, please do not attempt to cross — it’s hard to judge the depth of water during the day, and it’s nearly impossible at night.

    Winds will remain strong through midday Thursday on the lakes; a Lake Wind Advisory continues for Lake Moultrie until noon. Small craft are also urged to use caution during the day Thursday. Gale warnings are still up until 5am for waters out 20 nm.

    Here’s looking toward a much calmer and drier Thursday. We might see some rain peek back into the forecast Friday night; still tough to pin that one down, though.

     
  • Jared Smith 9:47 pm on December 2, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: ,   

    Tornado Watch extended to 11 PM 

    NWS has extended Tornado Watch 789, previously scheduled to expire at 9 PM, to 11 PM. The main line of storms is about through Charleston now, but there seems to be some activity kicking up behind it — better safe than sorry. After these last few rounds of activity clear, I suspect the watch will be dropped, especially as the highest probability of tornadic activity has moved northeast into the Grand Strand and eastern North Carolina. Will continue to watch…

     
  • Jared Smith 3:24 pm on December 2, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: , ,   

    Tornado Watch 789 until 9 PM 

    It’s official, and about an hour before I thought: the Charleston area — and indeed, all of eastern SC — is now under a tornado watch. Primary threats cited in the watch discussion include damaging winds in excess of 70 MPH, half-inch sized hail, frequent and dangerous lightning, and of course tornadoes. The discussion in full:

    Tornadoes…hail to 0.5 inch in diameter…thunderstorm wind
    gusts to 70 mph…and dangerous lightning are possible in these
    areas.

    The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 80 statute
    miles either side of a line from 55 miles west southwest of
    Savannah Georgia to 45 miles east northeast of Orangeburg South
    Carolina. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
    associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou9).

    Remember…a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.

    Other watch information…continue…ww 788…

    Discussion…a mesolow/MCV in central GA will track newd along a
    retreating warm front into central SC through the afternoon…and
    ongoing pre-frontal storms will continue to spread newd over se GA
    into srn SC. The moist and weakly unstable warm sector will surge
    nwd across SC in advance of the low…while low-mid level vertical
    shear will remain quite favorable for embedded supercells capable of
    producing a few tornadoes and damaging winds.

    Storms in southern Georgia have been kicking up a lot of lightning this afternoon, and as I write this, there are two active tornado warnings there. This is definitely something to watch closely as the afternoon progresses and we get into that rush hour time.

    For the record, the time of next high tide is around 7:30. That is expected to be a lower high tide, forecasted at 5.15 feet; however, any rapid rainfall on top of an already soaked Downtown could once again put streets underwater this evening. RADAR is not estimating the same rainfall rates out of the Georgia storms as we saw this morning; however, anything above half an inch per hour could prove problematic for an already overwhelmed drainage system.

     
    • Jared Smith 4:50 pm on December 2, 2009 Permalink

      New AFD, just released a few minutes ago:

      WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC FORCING AND INCREASINGLY
      FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST
      AREA…EXPECT AN ACTIVE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
      STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH AND STRONG LONG
      TRACKED TORNADOES OF EF2 STRENGTH OR GREATER.

      Rain is going to start again shortly in Dorchester County, sliding up the coast and eastward. Going to begin to get very rough here in the next hour or so.

  • Jared Smith 10:40 am on December 2, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: , , ,   

    As messy as advertised, with the brunt yet to come 

    The flooding situation has been as messy as advertised this morning. NWS just reported that the high tide at Charleston Harbor this morning was 7.75 feet — well beyond the point where coastal flooding begins even without rain (typically 7 feet).

    Traffic into downtown Charleston is nearly impossible. The Crosstown is closed and it’s not likely to reopen for a little while. Stalled cars litter the streets-turned-rivers downtown. Josh Marthers at WCBD captures the flooding situation well. I also highly recommend watching traffic tweets and pictures (and there are some good ones) on Collecta.

    And as bad as this morning was, we haven’t seen the worst of it. This morning’s Day 1 Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center continues the “slight risk” for severe weather in Charleston, and this could be upgraded to a “moderate risk” later today, especially if any sunshine peeks through and adds more fuel to the fire. The storm system which is expected to wreak havoc on us later this evening has already dropped several tornadoes in the Florida panhandle, and there is a good possibility we may see at least one or two tornadic cells later today in the Lowcountry. Straight-line damaging winds continue to be the primary threat from this system, though.

    There’s a good shot that we’ll have a tornado watch in effect by 3PM today. Keep an eye to Twitter as the day progresses with updates from NWS and SPC. We’ll announce watches and warnings there as they happen.

     
    • Jared Smith 1:36 pm on December 2, 2009 Permalink

      Not much has changed with the new Day 1 Outlook. Charleston is still listed as having an elevated risk of tornadoes and damaging winds. In the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Charleston called this afternoon’s severe weather threat a “potentially dangerous situation” — something NWS does not say lightly. Here’s hoping for the best, but it does look like the ingredients are going to come together for a very rough late afternoon and evening. Some clearing was observed in Georgia — let’s just hope that doesn’t happen here.

    • Jared Smith 3:15 pm on December 2, 2009 Permalink

      Tornado Watch now in effect for a great deal of SC, including Charleston and surrounding areas, until 9 PM. More information forthcoming.

  • Jared Smith 2:17 am on December 2, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: , day 1, ,   

    Wednesday: Slight risk of severe weather, high probability of damaging winds 

    The Storm Prediction Center has just issued its Day 1 Convective Outlook, placing the Charleston area in a slight risk for severe weather. Currently, forecasters are pegging the severe event to take place in the late afternoon and into the evening hours. Primary threats are widespread damaging winds as well as the possibility of tornadoes, especially along the coastal regions.

    Currently, this is the thinking (or something like it) on Wednesday’s event:

    • 3AM – midday: Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms associated with a warm front will soak the Lowcountry. The timing of the rain will line up with an already abnormally high tide at 7am. Enhanced with a brisk onshore flow, coastal areas including downtown Charleston could see potentially significant flooding. A Coastal Flood Warning goes into effect at 4am through 11am.
    • Midday – ~2-3 PM: Break in the action as the warm front lifts north, but before the cold front’s squall line reaches the coast. There’s a possibility that the sun may come out during this time; any sunshine could significantly destabilize the atmosphere further and thus enhance the intensity of severe weather.
    • 3 PM – Evening: Cold front makes its move on the Lowcountry. Squally thunderstorms with strong, damaging wind likely. Supercells also are a possibility; those storms can contain downbursts and tornadoes. Heavy rain also is expected, though the flood threat is not expected to be as pronounced in the evening. Activity will likely continue after sunset; be especially aware of rapidly changing conditions after dark because it will be much harder to see what’s happening.
    • Thursday: Conditions gradually abate themselves as the front moves through; rain tapers off through Thursday.

    The takeaway: The morning and afternoon commutes will likely be quite nasty. Allow extra time during your commute, and if you encounter a flooded area downtown in the morning, turn around! It takes relatively little water to stall out a vehicle. Streets such as Rutledge and Ashley Avenues, Jonathan Lucas, Bee Street, the Crosstown, East Bay Street, Market Street, and others could prove impassable. Have alternate routes ready to go. Other coastal communities, including Folly Beach and Isle of Palms, may also see significant flooding problems in the morning.

    Keep an eye here or to @chswx for updates throughout the day.

     
  • Jared Smith 6:11 pm on December 1, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: coastal flood, high surf,   

    Coastal Flood Warning to be issued 

    The 5 PM Area Forecast Discussion indicates that a Coastal Flood Warning will be issued for coastal communities, including downtown Charleston, tomorrow morning. This means flooding is expected to occur. High tide is just before 7:30am, so expect a very messy rush hour for downtown commuters tomorrow.

    From the AFD:

    THE LATEST GFS EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE
    GUIDANCE SHOWS TIDES REACHING CLOSE TO 7.8 MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
    AND AROUND 9.9 MLLW AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. GIVEN THE MODEL
    CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOWING TIDES REACHING THESE
    LEVELS…ALONG WITH IT/S TRACK RECORD OF UNDERESTIMATING THE ACTUAL
    TIDAL DEPARTURES AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN THESE UNUSUAL
    EVENTS…WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
    ENTIRE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST.

    Additionally, the strong onshore flow may cause beach erosion and high surf, so a high surf advisory will be issued as well. I’ll update again when I hear the particulars on the new warnings and advisories.

     
    • Jared Smith 6:18 pm on December 1, 2009 Permalink

      The Coastal Flood Warning is official. The warning covers the entire coast, and will go into effect at 4am. NWS cited potential tides between 7.8 and 8.0 feet. Rush hour will be VERY hairy for downtown commuters tomorrow.

      From the warning issuance:

      SALT WATER WILL RISE INTO YARDS…STREETS AND DRIVEWAYS ACROSS
      PARTS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON…ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT OFTEN
      EXPERIENCE FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE EVENTS. HIGHWAY 80 LEADING
      TO TYBEE ISLAND GEORGIA WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED…WITH HIGH WATER
      POSSIBLY MAKING THE ROADWAY IMPASSABLE. MANY OTHER COASTAL
      LOCATIONS WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED…INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO
      ISLE OF PALMS…SULLIVANS ISLAND…SEABROOK ISLAND…EDISTO
      ISLAND…EDISTO BEACH…HUNTING ISLAND…LADYS ISLAND…SAINT
      CATHERINES ISLAND AND SAPELO ISLAND.

    • Jared Smith 6:41 pm on December 1, 2009 Permalink

      The High Surf Advisory will start at 5am and last until 5PM Thursday. Not sure I’d go surfing in this weather, though — maybe Thursday if you’re into that Polar Bear thing. :)

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