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  Jared Smith 4:24 pm on November 9, 2009 Permalink
  Tags: Forecast (5), gulf coast, hurricane season 2009 (2), tropical storm ida   

  Eyes on Ida, impacts on Charleston 

  Tropical Storm Ida is on its way to an early morning landfall on the Gulf Coast. As of the 1PM advisory, Ida’s packing 70 MPH winds — a generous estimate, as the storm is being sheared off from the southwest and is in cooler waters. Ida’s slowly beginning to lose its tropical characteristics, too — a condition that will accelerate as it is absorbed into a frontal system tomorrow. While Ida itself will wind down, the interaction of the storm’s low pressure center and a high pressure system to the north (which brought us beautiful weather for the weekend) is creating a tight pressure gradient, which will bring gusty winds to much of the Southeast, including Charleston. The winds will be primarily out of the east and southeast, so there is concern for elevated tides and choppy waters. Small craft advisories are in force and will likely prevail through the next several days.

  The forecast is still a bit tricky on this, but for now, expect some showers to start after midnight, with a buildup of rain during the day Tuesday. If the forecast holds, the rain will gradually begin to taper off on Wednesday as the system moves offshore. Gusty winds of 15-25 MPH are possible at times, so in heavier pockets of rain visibility may become an issue. Generally, though, expect this to be a bit of a windy and rainy storm, but nothing too terribly out of the ordinary otherwise — certainly is nothing to board up over.

  I’ll post some additional information as it comes through the weather wire during the day in the comments as we begin to get a better handle on what’s going to happen over the next two days. Stay tuned.

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    Jared Smith 5:00 pm on November 9, 2009 Permalink

    Small Craft Advisories are up for the Charleston County coast until 5 PM Friday. Also, the latest forecast track puts Ida inland tonight, and then turning east during the day Tuesday.

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    Jared Smith 5:28 pm on November 9, 2009 Permalink

    From the NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook just released a few minutes ago — gale watches/warnings possible for the harbor:

    MARINE…STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
    WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
    IDA MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
    SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP
    ACROSS ALL OR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING
    CHARLESTON HARBOR…AND GALE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY
    EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE
    LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE
    INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

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    Jared Smith 5:32 pm on November 9, 2009 Permalink

    Also from the HWO: NWS is also monitoring for high surf and coastal flooding. Note the possibility for wind advisories for the coastal areas.

    COASTAL HAZARDS…HIGH SURF…BEACH EROSION AND SHALLOW COASTAL
    FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
    AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…AS WINDS AND
    SEAS INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
    IDA PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
    BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY
    EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

    WINDS…BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
    AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
    IDA PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
    IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY
    EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
    AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.

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  Jared Smith 11:30 am on November 4, 2009 Permalink
  Tags: hurricane season 2009 (2), td11   

  Tropical Depression 11 has formed in the Caribbean and will probably be classified as a tropical storm later today. Will watch this one closely given its proximity and potential for making things interesting for the Southeast and Gulf Coasts in the next week or so.