Say hi to September — and Tropical Storm Erika
Welcome to September — the peak month in hurricane season — and say hello to Tropical Storm Erika, the fifth named storm in the Atlantic this year (formerly classified as Invest 94). Erika packs 50 MPH winds — skipping the Tropical Depression stage — and an immediate threat to the Leeward Islands, where tropical storm watches have been posted.
Erika’s been a work in progress for a few days, slowly but surely organizing despite persistent wind shear atop of it. NHC anticipates slow strengthening over the next couple days, but the official forecast does not make it a hurricane. It’s noted in the initial forecast discussion, however, that the GFDL and HWRF models — two computer models particularly specialized in tropical forecasting — make Erika a hurricane. Thus, the usual disclaimer applies — the intensity forecast is subject to much change.
The forecast path is also pretty uncertain at this point. As indicated in the discussion, the strength of the storm will largely dictate how it interacts with the steering currents. Generally, the stronger the storm is, the more likely it is it will be influenced by the steering currents, and the sooner it will likely make that northward and eventual northeast recurvature that spares us from these systems. It’s just too early to say how strong Erika will get and if/when it will turn away. Given the storm’s position and high track uncertainty, it certainly bears close watch.
Because of Erika’s proximity to land, NHC will be issuing intermediate advisories, so we’ll get new intensity and position estimates every three hours instead of the usual six.
Meanwhile, off the coast of Africa…
NHC is monitoring a wave that’s trying to get somewhat organized near the Cape Verde Islands; they give this system a low chance of developing over the next two days, but it could very well be the next storm in line later on this week into the weekend.