Welcome to hurricane season

Welcome to hurricane season! Technically, this has been going on since June 1, but with only a short-lived tropical depression to speak of, the first two and a half months of the 2009 Atlantic season has not exactly been in the forefront of everyone’s mind.

That’s changing, though. Tropical Storm Ana formed this morning, with Tropical Depression Three right behind it (expect it to become Bill soon). Where are they headed? While it’s too soon to say for sure, these two are storms we’ll want to keep an eye on in Charleston.

Tropical Storm Ana

Ana’s had a rough start to life; it started as Tropical Depression Two a couple days ago, fizzled out, and then suddenly roared back to life overnight Friday and gained Tropical Storm status. In the last few hours, though, strong upper-level winds have started tearing the storm apart again, and Ana’s survival is once again questionable. However, if it does hang tough, this will be something to watch as we get into Wednesday and Thursday. (South Florida should definitely keep a close eye on this one.)

Tropical Storm Bill

Bill was christened at the 5PM advisory, and has a much better chance of long-term survival and attaining hurricane status than Ana. In a way, Ana’s blazing a trail for Bill; it’s interacting with a lot of dry air and leaving behind a moist wake, which Bill can use to better sustain itself. The forecast has it becoming a category 2 hurricane by Thursday, just north of Puerto Rico. While early model runs do indicate that Bill will curve away, the track does bear a very close eye given the expected intensity of the storm and the fact that it could cut fairly close. Of the two storms, Bill concerns me more.

I’ll update here as more is learned about these two systems and their impact on Charleston’s weather later into the upcoming week.