Charleston Weather

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  Jared Smith 12:18 pm on April 2, 2009 Permalink
  Tags: Flooding (4), heavy rainfall, severe potential   

  Flooding concerns this afternoon 

  A batch of steady rain with some pockets of heavy rainfall at times has been training over the Charleston metro much of the day. Typically, when we get steady rains like this, the primary focus is always on the downtown area and the flood threat. High tide is at 2:38 PM today, and with the rain expected to continue to hang around through tonight and into tomorrow, there could be some serious problems getting around the city this afternoon.

  First, some rainfall totals (since midnight) from various personal weather stations around the area:

  • College of Charleston Observatory: 2.22″
  • Camp David, Mt. Pleasant: 1.78″
  • Carolina Bay, West Ashley: 2.51″
  • Goose Creek: 2.13″
  • Summerville: 2.03″

  These totals will only continue to increase — I can see daily rainfalls of upwards of 3″ to possibly even 4″ in isolated spots before this is all said and done. This will make for some very treacherous driving in the area, especially downtown. TheDigitel has posted a Google map of flood zones in the area. If you know of one not on the list, feel free to add it — it’s wide open for community contributions.

  Please leave flood reports in comments or on Twitter using the hashtag #chswx. The Charleston Weather Twitter account will see those and retweet as needed.

   

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  Jared Smith 5:45 pm on April 1, 2009 Permalink
  Tags: severe, spc convective outlook, spc slight risk, spring   

  Fun with the Forecastronic — but a severe threat looms 

  I’m pretty sure it was obvious, but yes, the Forecastronic was, in fact, an April Fool’s joke. I hope you enjoyed it. It was a fun introduction to this blog for a lot of folks — kind of a kickoff as we get going here. While the main page has reverted, the Forecastronic page will live on for posterity (though it won’t be updated).

  I’ve reverted the site a bit early, though, because we might have trouble tomorrow. Here’s the Day 2 convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

  

  While a majority of the action is going to be concentrated in Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia (where a moderate risk of severe weather is forecast, which is pretty significant), the bulk of the energy which could foster severe storms may move into the Carolinas — and the Charleston metro — after midnight. This is something we’ll want to keep a watch on, as large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat all come packaged with this system. Expect rain and some embedded thunderstorms during most of the day Thursday, with a gradual worsening of the weather into the night. RADAR already indicates some shower and thunderstorm activity to our southwest moving eastward, so there’s a fairly decent chance of some thunderstorms tonight.

  These nighttime systems are especially dangerous because most people are sleeping, so it behooves you today to make sure that you are prepared for the possibility of severe weather. A NOAA Weather Radio is always a good choice. Have that severe weather action plan ready, too.

  I know that there have been a couple instances this year where severe scenarios haven’t panned out the way they were expected — and this one could be no different hence the “slight” rating (which we’ve had several times this year). However, the nighttime threat does prompt the need for a little more caution and watchfulness tomorrow night.

   
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  Jared Smith 8:53 am on April 1, 2009 Permalink
  Tags: announcement, charlestonwx, computer model, forecastronic, site roadmap, total available convective opportunity   

  charlestonwx.com brings forecasts in-house with new computer model 

  One of my goals has always been to bring forecasting for Charleston Weather in-house. What the National Weather Service does is very well-respected and should be commended, but I’ve also wanted to tackle the challenge of creating my own forecasts for the area. I’m pleased to report this is now a reality thanks to the Forecastronic 9000, a dramatic step forward in computer-generated weather forecasts.

  How does Forecastronic work?

  Forecastronic, a joint collaboration between our friends at neowx and myself, ingests data from periodic NWS soundings as well as the entire set of Level II NEXRAD data across the WSR-88D network. This, combined with reports from individual weather stations — including the rain gauge in your backyard — helps Forecastronic generate proper forecasts for any locale in the United States.

  Forecastronic’s credentials

  
  Having access to the Forecastronic for our forecasts is exciting in many ways, but is mostly exciting because it is the first believed hypercertified computer model in existence, passing rigorous standards tests from all the major meteorological bureaus across the world. So, when you look up your Forecastronic-generated outlook for the next 36 hours, you’ll know that it will be reliable and accurate.

  Special severe weather detection capability

  The Forecastronic uses a new index to determine whether severe weather is imminent: the Total Available Convective Opportunity Index. It has three levels: Mild indicates a chance for thunderstorms, but nothing terribly strong; Hot indicates that convective activity is stronger and could support high cloud tops and hail-producing storms; and, finally, Explosive indicates that thunderstorms carry a high possibility of tornadic activity.

  Forecastronic is Web 2.0 ready

  Forecastronic is also the first computer model known to man to output its raw results to Twitter. This means you can follow Forecastronic in your Twitter timeline, and when each Forecastronic model run is completed, you’ll get your hypercertified forecast before anybody else.

  It’s my hope that Forecastronic will help expand the services that we can provide; I’m hoping soon to tweak the model even further so we can provide 14-day forecasts with reasonable skill — something that not even the government is doing yet.

  As always, thanks for sticking with charlestonwx.com as we build and grow!